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--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew Reyes <matt@astro.ufl.edu>
Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 15:30:06 -0400
Subject: Hurricane Ivan Update
To: "Matthew F. Reyes" <motorbikematt@gmail.com>

Hi Guys,

Webpage is updated:

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/ferllab/Reyes/Tropical/index.html

According to the latest track, Ivan is indeed slowing down and will not be at our latitude until Wednesday evening. More of the models are now tracking further westward, so it's looking better for those of us in Gainesville. However, given that we are still very near the bubble, there are a few outliers that aim our way, AND the previous disclaimer I mentioned regarding Ivan's fit into the models, we should be prepared to expect bad weather. Once it follows along the Yucatan current into the Gulf, expect the diameter of the storm to increase (Note: it is approaching the size of Frances).

See here:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCIvan257_G12.jpg

One more thing about the "bubble"...despite the westerly tracks of the models, the NHC still has this to say in it's more recent forecast discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/131455.shtml? HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 ...MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS ALSO VEERED FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE RIDGE HAS ERODED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
The best that can be said right now is look for the first models that track the storm once it's in the Gulf, probably Tuesday afternoon's track. Chances are that I'll skip the 5pm imagery and wait till 11pm tonight.

More to come...

Matt

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew Reyes <matt@astro.ufl.edu>
Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 03:53:23 -0400
Subject: Hurricane Ivan Update
To: "Matthew F. Reyes" <motorbikematt@gmail.com>

In this image I have overlaid the spaghetti plot over the official bubble and the windspeed plot that I have used in previous images. Future overlays will not include this the windspeed plot as I have come to realize that it could be misleading. The windspeed plot simply takes into account the black line and expands by the size of the storm the areas that might be subjected to certain winds assuming A) the hurricane follows that path and B) the hurricane doesn't increase in diameter. The windspeed plot does not take into account variations of other predictions (i.e. the bubble) and therefore isn't really informative.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT IVAN WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THERE HAS BEEN INCREASE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SPREAD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST BUT IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew Reyes <matt@astro.ufl.edu>
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 21:23:06 -0400
Subject: Hurricane Ivan Update
To: "Matthew F. Reyes" <motorbikematt@gmail.com>

Hi Guys, Discussion 42: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/122100.shtml? BECAUSE STEERING ARE CURRENTLY WEAK AND MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE...AND AT WHAT INTENSITY...IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS.

I've updated the website again today:

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/ferllab/Reyes/Tropical/index.html

Some of you may recall that I've been saying that this storm wouldn't reach our latitude until sometime Wednesday evening...looks like I might be lucky with that, but the logic was based on the effects of the Cuban island landmass and mountains. Using that same logic and historical perspectives, I am also guessing that it's going to get significantly larger in diameter once portions actually pass over the island. Note, the red zones in the IR imagery have already expanded about 100+ miles in diameter over the past 24 hours. This storm could end up being as large as Frances! There is room to grow:

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html

So once again, I remind you that while the models may be indicators of where the center of the storm may end up, they do not suggest what the weather will be like for a certain area. We are on the edge of the bubble today, and even if the furthest paths hold true, we are at the very least going to get wet.

More to come...

Matt

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F. Reyes <defiance@mindspring.com>
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 03:41:38 -0400
Subject: Hurricane Ivan Discussion 39
To: "Matthew F. Reyes" <motorbikematt@gmail.com>

Subject:	HURR IVAN Discussion 39
Date:	Sun, 12 Sep 2004 02:30:23 +0000
From:	NHC Mail (Atlantic Full) <mail-storm-atlan-full@hogfish.nhc.noaa.gov>

Hi Guys,

I've updated the track for Ivan as of 11pm this evening. Note this new track is essentially the same as the previous track with the spaghetti model...implying a possible increase in reliability in the accuracy of the bubble. In this case, I've gone ahead and overlaid windspeed data that indicates where Hurricane force winds may be felt, Gaineville is in the blue section, meaning that we may expect sustained winds between 60-75 mph.

Go here:

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/ferllab/Reyes/Tropical/index.html

Keep in mind two things: First, the damage that we have witnessed in Gainesville was the result of winds gusting up to 60-70 mph, not sustained winds. Gusts are expected to reach higher speeds. Second, these models lose reliability this far into the future. Sunday's and Monday's models will give us a better idea of what certainly could be a rough ride. Be prepared regardless.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/100232.shtml?

...AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW IVAN TO REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS
AT SOME POINT DURING ITS FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE EYEWALL CYCLES. 
AFTER 48 HR...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...IVAN SHOULD REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

Matt

-- 
 Matthew F. Reyes
 Plant Molecular and Cell Biology
 2312 Fifield Hall, Univ. of Florida
 FerlLab:392-1928 x313
 www.hos.ufl.edu/Ferllab/

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F. Reyes <defiance@mindspring.com>
Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 14:04:32 -0400
Subject: Ivan Update (Still Cat. 4)
To: "Matthew F. Reyes" <motorbikematt@gmail.com>

Hi Guys,

The 11am update is up. I might not get to the 5pm one today, but check the site around that time anyway.

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/ferllab/reyes/tropical/

Note, Gainesville is still in the yellow zone, suggesting up to 60mph sustained winds. The models are suggesting a more westward heading now, however there are two issues with this. First off, the storm will likely expand in diameter once it passes over Havana. Second, the turbulent effects of passing over widely varying elevations to the east and west of Havana may also tweak the eventual path and speed of the storm. Therefore the obvious still remains....we don't know details yet, but we're in for some bad weather.

More to come...

Matt

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