---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F Reyes <motorbikematt@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 19:25:13 -0400
Subject: Re: Hurricane Jeanne...
To: motorbikematt@gmail.com

Hi Guys

Site is updated:

www.hos.ufl.edu/Ferllab/Reyes/Tropical/

For this image I've zoomed into our section of the map so we could get
a better idea of what is happening. I have also included for the first
time a radar image overlay so that we can see the truly "thick"
portions of the storm: those parts that will inflict the most damage.
You can see the storm is going to cover a lot of real estate.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/252032.shtml?

INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WHEN A NEW
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IN
FLORIDA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER
LANDFALL.

Also, here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KJAX.shtml

..AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUTNAM AND
MARION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...
SUWANNEE...HAMILTON AND UNION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

Pay attention to the radars as they now have better resolution of the
relevant storm structure.

Jacksonville:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml
Tallahassee
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.ktlh.shtml
Melbourne:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
Tampa
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.ktbw.shtml
Miami
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

I'll try to do the 11pm and maybe the 5am one as well, but we'll see
how long I hold power.

Matt


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F Reyes <motorbikematt@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 13:29:46 -0400
Subject: Re: Hurricane Jeanne...
To: motorbikematt@gmail.com

Hi Guys

Site's updated:

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/ferllab/reyes/Tropical/index.html

Yeah, we're in for some bad weather folks. Gainesville is the red star
ontop of the S in the black circle. Hopefully it will stay east of us,
as the NE side of the storm typically is the worse. Be ready.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/251508.shtml?

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES JEANNE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

Specifically, there's a 30% chance of this occuring. See the charts:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104T+GIF/251503T.gif

And from the look from the Melbourne and Miami radars, Jeanne is a
well structured storm with some intense bands.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

I'll try to make the 5pm update.

Matt

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F Reyes <motorbikematt@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 20:56:05 -0400
Subject: Re: Hurricane Jeanne...
To: motorbikematt@gmail.com

Hi Guys,

I've updated the webpage with the 5pm track:

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/Ferllab/Reyes/Tropical/

According to the 5pm Discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/242059.shtml?

...WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING...

Alachua county is currently under a Tropical Wind Watch. This is
likely to change if the storm continues to follow a westerly track
and/or strengthens. Conditions exist that make both seem likely, so
start getting ready. We're looking at Sunday afternoon, though it may
pull a Frances and slow down offshore.

Read more here and from the links off the website:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ036&warncounty=FLC001&local_place1=Gainesville&product1=HURRICANE+WARNING

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ST AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD......

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALACHUA...
BRADFORD...AND MARION COUNTIES...

Good luck. I'll do my best to make one for 11pm.

Matt

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F Reyes <motorbikematt@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 15:15:55 -0400
Subject: Re: Hurricane Jeanne...
To: motorbikematt@gmail.com

Hi Guys,

Sorry for the delay updating the webpage, I've been busy with entirely
different sets of data ;)

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/Ferllab/Reyes/Tropical/index.html

So, it looks like Alachua County is once again going to experience
some amount of bad weather, but not nearly as bad as the coast,
possibly where Frances came in before. While predictions are that the
center of the storm will skirt the coast, in fact, many models do
predict a substantial entry over Central Florida sometime Sunday
night. From the looks of the weather patterns over the continental US,
I'd be willing to bet that the current model will be adjusted more to
the west and her ETA delayed when the 5pm or 11pm models come out
tonight (no guesses on the intensity). I'll do my best to generate
the new images.

As of right now, Jeanne is a relatively weak storm (relative to
Charley, Frances & Ivan that is) and there is a lot of good weather
that is currently preventing substantial strengthining of the storm.
However, this good weather also has the effect of introducing error in
the forecast for its direction, its speed, and its intensity, and
therefore needs to be watched very carefully. The NHC puts it best:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/241459.shtml?

JEANNE COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND/OR
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. NOTE...IF EXPECTED LANDFALL OCCURS A LITTLE
LATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES BEYOND 48
HOURS WOULD BE HIGHER.

Note, the image on the website includes the spaghetti plot along with
the windspeed data.

As of right now there is reason to believe that we may suffer
significant weather, with the potential more tree damage and possible
loss of electrical power. Be prepared. From personal experience, many
dead limbs that have not fallen from my oak trees are browning and
becoming more apparent. These may come down in this storm, so heads
up.

Take care,

Matt



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F Reyes <motorbikematt@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 14:49:29 -0400
Subject: Re: Hurricane Jeanne...
To: motorbikematt@gmail.com

Hi Guys,

Due to some technical difficulties, I won't be able to update the map
till probably after the 5pm update. However, do keep track here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm11+shtml/231458.shtml?

THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS NUDGED WESTWARD OUT OF
RESPECT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS...WHICH WERE FIRST TWO
MODELS AND THE MOST CONSISTENT ONES TO INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD FLORIDA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL TRICKY. OCEAN CONDITIONS NEAR JEANNE
ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.
HOWEVER...BY 24-48 HOURS...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AND JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR. BY 72 HOURS...JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRING ABOUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL RIGHT NOW.

GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.htm

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Matthew F Reyes <motorbikematt@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 00:34:18 -0400
Subject: Hurricane Jeanne...
To: motorbikematt@gmail.com

Hi Guys,

Keep your eyes open on Jeanne... current models have her nearby by the
weekend. While I have not made a graphic for this evening, barring a
dramatic positive change in the forcast, expect the webpage to be
updated for the 11am update. Of course, I'll drop you a line.

Here's is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/230253.shtml?

...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
THE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW BRINGING JEANNE
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EVEN THE
GFS...WHICH PREVIOULSY TURNED JEANNE NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING
FLORIDA...IS NOW BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER THE PENINSULA. I WAS
TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER WESTWARD...BUT
BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP CONTINUITY...ONLY A LITTLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER AVILA